[6] Ferguson says the United States also suffers from personnel deficits, citing the 500,000 deployable troop limit which he says is not sufficient to win “all the small wars” the United States is waging and will have to wage in order to maintain the current military posture. [3]Bilmes, Linda J.
The missile-defence scheme remains in its infancy, and is likely to cost more than current plans envisage. Yale historian Paul Kennedy defines imperial overstretch as the overextension either geographically, economically, or militarily that inevitably leads to the exhaustion of vital domestic resources, decline, and fall. The greatest threat to the United States potentially precipitating a fall into its decline is imperial overstretch. capability relative to rising challenger states.3 Paul Kennedy gave this phenomenon the succinct label of imperial overstretch.4 However, this article suggests that because most of the failures of the policies of the current hegemon come from poor choices rather than an inexorable mechanical process, a better metaphor would be hegemonic overreach. Rather, the totality of those three factors cumulatively puts the United States on a path to decline.Beyond the costs of the wars, Ferguson also warned of the forthcoming fiscal deficit that will expand as more baby boomers retire and claim Social Security and Medicare benefits. [8]Finally, geographic overstretch is carefully addressed in Linda Bilmes’ and University of California Los Angeles professor Michael Intriligator’s 2013 article in Those who do not see the United States as threatened by imperial overstretch argue that several wars and far reaching military presence can be financially supported and are key to long term security. Economic weakness, especially if it is expressed in rising unemployment, will, however, make the Bush administration even keener to pander to domestic lobbies for trade protection, as it already has for steel and farms. “The Financial Legacy of Iraq and Afghanistan: How Wartime Spending Decisions Will Constrain Future National Security Budgets.” HKS Faculty Research Working Paper Series RWP13-006, March 2013. As chart 8 shows, only 6% of American 24-year-olds have first degrees in those subjects, a lower figure even than in Europe and far lower than in the stars on this measure, Finland and (surprisingly) Britain. Gibbon, remember, was writing about the trials and tribulations of Rome's empire—but it was an empire that endured for hundreds of years.Entrepreneurship looks strong and management capable—if overpaid. White House budget information shows that in 2012, the United States was spending at a 7% deficit of Gross Domestic Product.
Lieutenant Jeff Janaro is a United States Coast Guard officer currently studying at George Mason University School of Law. The Gulf war in 1991 came after a decade in which the American economy had performed poorly, at least in comparison with its apparent new rival, Japan. The determination to fight against al-Qaeda terrorists and, in due course, against Saddam Hussein, will surely not be affected. The greatest threat to the United States potentially precipitating a fall into its decline is imperial overstretch.
It would be premature, though, to declare that the first decade of the 21st century is therefore bound to be as buoyant for America's economy as was the final decade of the 20th.Once again, America needs to be compared with Japan, but in a rather different way. There are, though, two small clouds on this otherwise sunny horizon that could be worth attending to. The idea of imperial overstretch was advanced by Paul Kennedy, a historian at Yale University. Following the war in Afghanistan, there will be pressure to spend even more on unmanned aircraft and precision-guided munitions. PAUL KENNEDY, a British historian based at Yale, made himself notorious in 1988 by suggesting in his magisterial book, “The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers”, that dominant powers had in the past fallen because of “imperial overstretch” and that the same might well happen to the United States.
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paul kennedy imperial overstretch