the hammer dance

Initially, their confidence on these numbers will be low. There’s so much we don’t know how to do yet! We are against the clock.

When it really hits, your healthcare system will be in even worse shape than in wealthy countries where the healthcare systems are strong. Even if one is infected, isolation will limit one’s capacity to spread the virus. Remember again that these are the orange bars. For all the reasons we mentioned above, given the value of time, we want to quench this thing as soon as possible. Again, that line is very close to the bottom. Only when all these fail do we need heavier social distancing measures.If with all these measures we’re still way above R=1, we need to reduce the average number of people that each person meets. When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away: If we choose to fight hard, the fight will be sudden, then gradual. It showed coronavirus cases across the world outside of China. Also, their enforcement was severe. He refuses to COMMAND corporations to produce vital masks, ventilators, etc.His government is not building the medical installations necessary to handle this crisis.It's all about political posturing while shielding the plutocracy both parties serve.Tell these hypocrites that you'll not stand for another betrayal of the public trust. I’m giving way to Tomas Pueyo, author of the article “The Hammer and the Dance.” He has much to share with us. Here, the “Do Nothing” situation is the black curve. What this means is that, whether leaders realize it or not, what they’re doing is: Get a sense of the benefit of applying them: the reduction in R Get a sense of their cost: the economic, social, and ethical cost. They don’t wash their hands after touching a door knob. Because there are so many flu strains, with new ones always evolving, the flu shot can never protect against all strains. It was pretty simple: efficient testing, efficient tracing, travel bans, efficient isolating and efficient quarantining.Want to guess their measures? Specifically: Go hard right now. We need to train orderlies and get medical workers out of retirement. This coronavirus could become a recurring fact of life, like the flu, but many times deadlier.So if neither doing nothing and mitigation will work, what’s the alternative?1.

The public is scared. The coronavirus is new. It’s a matter of time before they see outbreaks and need to take measures.Since the article last week, the conversation has changed and many countries have taken measures. A few weeks would give us enough time to start studying them, understand them, prioritize them, and decide which ones to follow. Meanwhile, the Suppression Strategy tries to apply heavy measures to quickly get the epidemic under control. That red dotted line is the capacity we have of ICU beds. You just haven’t noticed. Some regions will see outbreaks again, others won’t for long periods of time. Instead of ICU beds you can also look at ventilators, but the result is broadly the same, since there are  This is why people died in droves in Hubei and are now dying in droves in Italy and Iran. When you speak with people, you spread the virus. Because not only do we cut the exponential growth of cases. The US (and presumably the UK) are about to go to war without armor. Then, once you start having symptoms, you might slowly stop going to work, stay in bed, wear a mask, or start going to the doctor. With all these numbers, it’s easy to get confused. My entire point is that they would soon be joining these 3 cases.As predicted, the number of cases has exploded in dozens of countries. These two groups of countries illustrate the two extreme approaches to fight the coronavirus: mitigation and suppression. Funerals can’t have more than a handful of people. The world’s facing an enemy it doesn’t know enough of, which leaves us with two options: Run towards it or escape to buy time to prepare. @2017 - PenciDesign. We are completely unprepared, facing an enemy we don’t know. Each time you see a branching on the left graph, that is a mutation leading to a slightly different variant of the virus. Here is how the Imperial College team modeled suppressions. Roque first defined the hammer as the government’s decisions during the duration of the quarantine and the dance referred to the approach after the transmission rates have slowed down. It was pretty simple: efficient testing, efficient tracing, travel bans, efficient isolating, and efficient quarantining. So once we’re done with a few million deaths, we could be ready for a few million more — every year. It illustrates what is really going through their minds. We need to train people to assist nurses, and we need to get medical workers out of retirement. The Netherlands is also choosing an approach that epidemiologists are calling ‘the hammer and the dance’. ^0THE US AND THE UK ARE SHOWING THE WORLD WHAT NAKED CAPITALISM IS ALL ABOUT.Neither government has done anything effective to defeat the coronavirus threat.Trump refuses to deploy the full resources of the Federal government. We just know the official number is not right, and the true one is in the tens of thousands of cases. Together, all these days of contagion add up to 2.5 contagions on average. China’s measures were stronger. It wouldn’t even solve the problem, because we would be just postponing the epidemic: later on, once we release the social distancing measures, people will still get infected in the millions and die. That prevents a new outbreak, while eliminating the most drastic measures. Within 2 weeks, the country was starting to get back to work.

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